Expected Goals

Expected goals is simply a way of estimating chance quality. This is often done by comparing a shot to similar shots taken in the past.

For instance, an xG of 0.10 corresponds to an estimated 10% chance that a shot results in a goal.

xG model
Header
Assisted by
Preceded by
Click to move shot location

You can investigate how expected goals relates to match outcomes on Danny Page's site.

The 'Caley v1' calculation presumes league average attack speed and uses Michael Caley's expected goals model (Version 1)

There are instances in the Caley version 1 model where the xG value can be more than 1 or otherwise unrealistically high (see shots from tight angles close to the goalline). This is a known issue and is no longer present in the more sophisticated version 2.